In my humble opinion, and as I have written over 1 year ago, there must be meaningful structural changes to the ECB. I would think and hope that as the big banks in France and especially Germany slowly deleverage out of the Euro Zone and it’s debt, and as China likely continues to implement a slow diversification of it’s sovereign wealth from US Dollars to Euros, necessary ECB reform will become more of a reality.
I think the biggest threat to the Euro is whether it can sufficiently implement enough debt restructuring, institutional changes to the EU governing body and especially structural changes to the ECB before the next global financial & economic crisis / recession hits ( later rather than sooner for all of our sakes. )
Rest assured that the next global recession crisis is likely to hit us all sooner that the historical average for recessions. If the EU can not get it’s house in order within the next 3 years or so, it will be tempting the possibility of the collapse of the Euro and the European Union itself. But I believe that a three-year window of time is sufficient, as long as there are no large, global, unforseen financial & economic crises in the meantime. One of the first tests we will all face will be how the U.S. Fed will handle the challenge of deleveraging the toxic U.S. mortgages off of its balance sheet.
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